On October 12, a pivotal conference focusing on Russia's economic landscape was hosted at Renmin University of China. Esteemed guests gathered to delve deep into the current nuances of Russia's economy as well as forecast the trajectory of Sino-Russian collaboration. This gathering served as a platform for exchanging insights aimed at fostering the development of the bilateral relationship.

The discussions revealed that the West’s extensive and rigorous sanctions against Russia, deemed some of the harshest in history, have set a daunting backdrop for the country's economic performance. Contrary to widespread expectations, Russia’s economy has shown considerable resilience amidst these trials. In an analysis prepared for the forum, it was noted that even with significant Western penalties, Russia's investment landscape saw a growth rate of 5.9% in the first nine months of 2022. Consequently, the nation’s overall GDP experienced a minor dip of just 2.1%, a rate markedly lower than predictions made by global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. As the year progressed into 2023, the Russian economy maintained a positive trajectory, with asset investments accelerating and fiscal health improving significantly, attributed to both economic growth and diversification beyond hydrocarbons. Reports show a GDP growth rate of approximately 3.6% for the year.

Experts, including Zhang Yuyan from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, underscored Russia's abundant resources and strategic advantages in sectors like food security and energy. The government’s proactive import substitution strategy, initiated well before the current crisis, has enabled the country to fill the void left by exiting foreign suppliers across multiple key industries, including food production, heavy machinery, and shipbuilding. Zhang pointed out that substantial supportive economic policies rolled out by both the federal and regional governments have not only precipitated large-scale investment projects but also stimulated private investment—a critical factor in Russia's ability to adapt and flourish economically.

Researcher Li Jianmin echoed this sentiment, remarking that the Russian government has upheld high levels of investment expenditure through the first three quarters of 2024. These investments are generating new job opportunities and stimulating consumer demand, thereby invigorating the local market. Noteworthy data from mid-2023 illustrates a 9.6% year-on-year increase in real disposable cash income for Russian households—the highest level recorded since the country revamped its statistical methodology in 2014. Furthermore, during the first half of the year, Russia’s GDP surged by 4.6%, industrial production experienced a growth of 4.4%, and retail trade expanded by a staggering 8.8%. Perhaps most striking is the impressive 16.5% sales increase in Russia’s fast-moving consumer goods sector, a substantial rise from merely 7.9% in the previous year.

Moreover, the overall increase in energy prices has contributed to a recovery in Russia's previously declining oil and gas revenues, which has helped stabilize its financial outlook for 2024. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development's latest report forecasts an increase in oil and gas export revenues, raising projections for 2024 by $17.4 billion to an anticipated total of $239.7 billion. This includes estimates suggesting an increase in crude oil export volumes from 238.3 million tons in 2023 to approximately 239.9 million tons in 2024, translating to about 4.8 million barrels per day—with average oil export prices expected to rise to $70 per barrel, surpassing the $64.5 average price of the preceding year.

Nonetheless, the report emphasizes that the longer-term projections for Russia's "investment-driven—consumption-led" growth model face considerable obstacles. The rapid growth of investments is curtailed by a lack of imported capital goods and labor shortages, leading to greater volatility in the ruble’s exchange rate and accelerating inflation. Furthermore, the wealth dissipation linked to military-industrial production represents a significant obstacle to sustainable economic growth.

Sun Zhuangzhi, director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, made it clear that Russia's economic transformation remains incomplete, heavily reliant on resource-based exports such as oil, natural gas, and agricultural produce. Expanding its capacity for diversified development and enhancing internal growth potential are essential steps that require urgent attention.

Echoing concerns about external constraints, Ding Xiaoxing from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations highlighted that Russia's integration into the global economy and free trade is impeded. As the nation seeks to maintain sovereignty in various sectors—be it national security, technology, culture, or information—the challenge of achieving technological innovation and fostering sustainable development continues to loom large.

In light of being isolated by Western entities, Sun Zhuangzhi remarked that Russia is actively leveraging diplomatic channels to navigate its economic challenges. The nation is decisively pivoting towards Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern markets, collaborating with countries like Turkey to establish new energy export routes and bolstering exports to BRICS nations.

Professor Chen Xiaoqin from Renmin University emphasized that the current engine of the Eurasian Economic Union has been compromised to some extent by Western sanctions. Moving forward, Russia aims to align the Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union as a significant development vector. Efforts are underway to encourage the Eurasian Economic Union to "look east" and explore collaborative opportunities in pivotal sectors such as automotive, digital technology, pharmaceuticals, and scientific research.

Moreover, Zhang Yuyan articulated that Russia is actively working on reforming cross-border payment systems among BRICS countries to establish an economic buffer against sanctions. This overarching plan includes establishing a trade center for major commodities like oil, gas, grain, and gold, with the goal of enhancing economic cooperation among BRICS nations.

Finally, Guan Xueling, head of the Russian Studies Center at Renmin University and St. Petersburg State University, remarked on the resilience and maturity of Russo-Chinese relations, particularly under the guidance of the leaders of both nations. The relationship has flourished during a period marked by significant geopolitical shifts, with bilateral trade in 2023 already hitting $240.11 billion, meeting the trade target established by the two heads of state ahead of schedule. Looking to the future, both countries plan to cultivate new growth opportunities in sectors such as the digital economy, development in the Russian Far East, and the Northern Sea Route, providing a positive and stabilizing force amid the complexities of the global political landscape.