As we enter the fourth quarter of the year, the global economy seems to be navigating through a more stable growth trajectory, showing some signs of recovery after a turbulent phase. Yet, significant downward risks linger, given the myriad challenges that still exist. Policymakers are urged to implement proactive measures to fortify the backbone of ongoing economic progress.

On September 25, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest Economic Outlook report. This document adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2024 from an earlier estimate of 3.1% to 3.2%, while keeping the 2025 expectation stable at 3.2%. The report highlights a continued decrease in inflation rates and a resilient economy. Notably, many countries within the G20 grouping are witnessing relatively strong economic growth.

This year has marked a gradual shift in the lackluster growth of the global economy. In the first half of the year, manufacturing sectors across different regions displayed a variety of recovery paces, influencing overall economic performance considerably. Specifically, emerging markets demonstrated robust growth during the second quarter, in stark contrast to the slower growth observed in developed economies. The discrepancy was accentuated by differing economic environments and policy timelines across countries, leading to a pronounced divergence in global recovery patterns. However, as September rolled in, monetary policy adjustments, epitomized by the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, hinted at a smoother growth path for advanced economies like the U.S., Japan, and those in Europe. Coupled with diminishing external pressures and ongoing structural adjustments within their own economies, many emerging markets are poised to unlock further growth potential.

The amelioration of global trade and inflation also creates conducive conditions for restoring growth. Trade recoveries have outpaced expectations, while inflation rates are steadily declining and stabilizing. The OECD predicts that by the end of 2025, inflation rates in most G20 economies will align with central bank targets. Analysts assert that such trends not only alleviate uncertainties surrounding the global economy but also grant governments increased leeway in their monetary policies.

New sources of growth are beginning to take shape on a global scale. The progress in digital transformation and the shift toward a green economy are expected to inject fresh energy into global growth. The digital revolution is enhancing productivity while spawning innovative business models and services. Simultaneously, the movement towards a green economy supports sustainable development while promoting environmental protection, thus expanding future growth horizons. These burgeoning sectors may narrow the growth disparities among countries and contribute to a more stabilized growth pattern.

However, it's essential to recognize that persistent challenges remain. Demand from developed markets in the U.S. and Europe shows no significant signs of improvement. The combination of high interest rates and elevated levels of debt remains a daunting backdrop for the economy. Consumer spending in advanced nations continuously cools as the surplus savings accumulated during the pandemic gradually dwindle. A drop in demand from these developed regions could adversely impact countries and areas that heavily depend on exports, consequently affecting the overall performance of global trade.

The outlook for high interest rates and debt levels shows little sign of relenting. While global supply chains are recovering alongside production expansions, inflation remains persistently high. Major central banks in the U.S. and Europe have embarked on interest rate cuts, yet rates still hover at elevated levels and are expected to remain so for an extended period, keeping the global economy under a burden of high financing costs for the time being. Furthermore, both public and corporate debt levels are alarmingly high, posing threats to economic growth. The Federal Reserve's nuanced approach toward managing interest rate timing demands vigilant scrutiny, as its influence on the global economic landscape is immensely pronounced.

Moreover, the strategies employed by certain factions in the U.S. to escalate economic blockades and technological sanctions against other countries are disrupting global economic stability and contributing to a fragmentary world economy. The persistent strain of geopolitical tensions continues to pose significant disruptions to recovery efforts.

The fourth quarter is set to host a series of crucial international gatherings, including the BRICS leaders' meeting, the non-formal APEC leaders' summit, and the G20 Leaders' Summit. Stakeholders must seize these moments, leveraging these platforms to strengthen international cooperation, promote structural reforms, enhance risk mitigation strategies, and advocate for sustainable development initiatives. Collectively, these actions are vital to tackle the existing risks and challenges, thus paving the way towards sustained and stable global economic growth.